Worry

“In every life we have some trouble, but when you worry you make it double. Don’t worry, be happy, don’t worry, be happy now” Bobby McFerrin: “Don’t Worry Be Happy” 1988.

I try to write the quarterly client letter based upon what we hear most during client reviews and conversations. Right now, the common theme is “I’m worried”. Our next question upon hearing this concern is always, “What are you worried about?”. We typically receive a litany of responses with the concern of the day being the current war in the middle east and what it could do to an investment portfolio. We can bring up all the historical financial charts as to previous wars, what happened in the markets, the short-term pullbacks, and where they are currently, but find that they never address the worry someone is feeling today. Our brain quickly focuses on short term pain vs longer term reality. We worry that the short-term pain will ruin our long-term plans. The answer is it will. It will if you let it affect you in a way that causes you to make an irrational decision. It will if you let it affect the way you go about your daily life, focused on the noise of the day, depressing you even more. It will if you focus on the “what if” versus the “what is”.

The United States was started with a war. There have been hundreds of military interventions since 1776. The reasons behind each, not easily explainable, never wanted, with loss of life, catastrophic global economic damage and almost unbearable personal burden on those who served and the families who loved them.

Yet, with each challenge the United States was placed, or chose to place themselves in, we stood strong. We prayed for those in harm’s way, families continued to love each other, politicians continued to grandstand, and business continued to adapt to the economics of the day. In the simplest sense, capital markets (stocks/bonds) are a LONG TERM bet that businesses will figure out the current challenges and continue to adapt and grow. This has been a winning economic formula for over 200 years regardless of the military conflict we were in. Betting against the United States economy long term has been a losing bet. We do not know with certainty the outcome of the current military action yet, but we are highly confident that when it is all over the United States and global economy will pull their selves up, figure it out, adjust, recalibrate and move forward.

War is messy, life at times can be messy, the financial markets are quite often messy. The privilege of waking up each morning is truly a gift. I choose not to waste that gift by worrying about something I cannot control. I choose to be highly educated as to the reality of the day yet refuse to worry about the “what if” versus the “what is”. I believe Bobby McFerrin said it best in his 1988 classic song, “Don’t Worry, Be Happy”. I added a phrase: “Be Educated”.